Gulf of
Ruoying He1, Yizhen Li1, Dennis McGillicuddy2, Don Anderson2, Bruce Keafer2
1North
2Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.
Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2011, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.
Physical
circulation model
Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM
Tides (M2, S2, N2,
6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)
River runoff data from USGS
Sea surface temperature from satellites
Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)
Alexandrium
fundyense model
Population dynamics
from Stock et
al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), He et al., (2008) and Li et
al.(2009)
Cyst maps from Fall 2010 Survey in comparison with earlier years
(http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/cystmap/cystmap_04_11.png)
Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP
Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine
The mortality rate of A.
fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q10
formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)
An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from February 1, 2012 to July 22, 12:00, 2012
http://omgsrv1.meas.ncsu.edu/GoMaine_Redtide/2012/weekly_nowcast_forecast/dino_12.htm
A 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance
from February 1, 2012 to July 22, 12:00, 2012
http://omgsrv1.meas.ncsu.edu/GoMaine_Redtide/2012/weekly_nowcast_forecast/2012forecast_3d/dino_12.htm
Figure 4. Comparison between
Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit:
Cell#/L) on June 7th, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for
providing
preliminary observations)
Figure 5. Comparison between Observed (left) and modeled (right) surface cell concentration (unit: Cell#/L) on June 19th, 2012. (Thanks to MWRA for providing preliminary observations)
Last update: July 20, 2012