Gulf of Maine Alexandrium fundyense Model Results – 2009

Ruoying He¹, Yizhen Li¹, Dennis McGillicuddy², Don Anderson², Bruce Keafer²

¹North Carolina State University

²Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.

Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2008, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.

Physical circulation model

Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM

Tides (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, Q1)

6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)

River runoff data from USGS

Sea surface temperature from satellites

Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)

Alexandrium fundyense model

Population dynamics from Stock et al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), and He et al., (2008)

Cyst maps from Fall 2008 Survey in comparison with earlier years

(http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/cystmap/cystmap_04_08.png)

Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP

Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine

The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q₁₀ formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)

Modeled A. fundyense bloom

An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from February 1, 2009 to July 15, 12:00, 2009

http://omgsrv1.meas.ncsu.edu/GoMaine_Redtide/2009/weekly_nowcast_forecast/dino_09.htm

An 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from February 1, 2009 to July 5, 12:00, 2009
http://omgsrv1.meas.ncsu.edu/GoMaine_Redtide/2009/weekly_nowcast_forecast/09forecast_3d/dino_09.htm

Last update: July 13, 2009