Gulf of Maine Alexandrium fundyense Model Results – 2008

Ruoying He¹, Yizhen Li¹, Dennis McGillicuddy², Don Anderson², Bruce Keafer²

¹North Carolina State University

²Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Disclaimer: these simulations are for experimental purposes only.

Results here represent model solutions initiated from a cyst abundance map from October 2007, with germination, growth, and transport of Alexandrium fundyense cells driven by the factors listed below.

Physical circulation model

Multiple nested ROMS, ca. ~1km resolution in GOM

Tides (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, Q1)

6-hourly wind and heat fluxes from NOAA/NCEP NOMADS (35-km resolution)

River runoff data from USGS

Sea surface temperature from satellites

Initial conditions and open boundary conditions from large-scale parent model (HYCOM)

Alexandrium fundyense model

Population dynamics from Stock et al. (2005); McGillicuddy et al. (2005), He et al., (in press)

Cyst maps from fall 2007 Survey in comparison with earlier years

(http://omglnx3.meas.ncsu.edu/yli/cystmap/cystmap_04_07.png)

Solar radiation from NOAA/NCEP

Monthly climatological nutrient fields from University of Maine

The mortality rate of A. fundyense is now parameterized using the temperature dependent Q₁₀ formulation (Durbin and Durbin, 1992)

Modeled A. fundyense bloom

An animation showing surface wind fields and modeled bloom conditions from March 1, 2010 to June 28 , 12:00, 2008

http://omgsrv1.meas.ncsu.edu/GoMaine_Redtide/2008/weekly_nowcast_forecast/dino_08.htm

An 3-D animation showing modeled surface and subsurface cell abundance from March 1, 2010 to June 28, 12:00, 2008
http://omgsrv1.meas.ncsu.edu/GoMaine_Redtide/2008/weekly_nowcast_forecast/08forecast_3d/dino_08.htm

Model-data comparison

 Apr 29--May 05,2008 ( Oceanus 445 ):

May 15--16, 2008 ( Tioga 303):

May 29--30, 2008 (OC 447)

Last update: June 28, 2008